Policy

Six Races Where Black Voters Could Decide the Midterms on Nov. 3

From Texas's Senate seat to Georgia's governor's mansion, the closest contests run through Black turnout.

October 30, 2026 at 4:13 AM ET · The Newsroom

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. TheGrio named six races where Black voters are likely to decide the outcome, in a guide published Oct. 1.

Texas, U.S. Senate: Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton for a seat Republicans have held for more than 35 years. Texas has about 4 million eligible Black voters, more than any other state.

Georgia, governor: Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, faces Republican Rick Jackson, who has put more than $100 million of his own money into the race. TheGrio called it a dead heat as of Oct. 1. A Bottoms win would make her the first Black woman elected governor anywhere in the country.

Illinois, U.S. Senate: Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, a Democrat, faces Republican Don Tracy. Stratton would be only the fifth Black woman ever elected to the Senate.

Wisconsin, governor: Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat, faces U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a Republican, in a race theGrio called a statistical tie. Crowley would be Wisconsin's first Black governor.

Georgia, U.S. Senate, and Michigan, U.S. Senate: Democrat Jon Ossoff defends his seat against U.S. Rep. Mike Collins, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers for an open seat. Georgia's high Black turnout made Ossoff's 2021 win possible, and in battleground Michigan the margin is expected to be razor-thin.

Source: theGrio